When a market price becomes a plot point
A note on public probabilities, liquidity, whales, and why a market can become part of the story it measures.
Articles
Prediction markets do more than forecast elections
Visible election odds can affect donors, media framing, campaign energy, and turnout. A note on prediction-market reflexivity.
The Price of a Thermometer
A Paris airport sensor, a Polymarket payout, and the oracle problem behind prediction-market fiction.